AI-generated historical illustration based on reference photographs of Beaverhead Rock, Montana. Not a contemporary depiction of the 1805 expedition.
Every leader makes assumptions. We have to. There is seldom enough time or information to know everything before making a decision. We gather what we can, consider our options, and choose a direction. Then we get to work.
The trouble comes when we become so committed to our assumptions that we stop looking for evidence that might challenge them.
Jim Collins addresses this problem in his classic bestselling business book, Good to Great, first published in 2001. After studying companies that made the transition from good performance to exceptional results, Collins identified several characteristics that distinguished them from their competitors.
One of those characteristics was a willingness to confront what he called the "brutal facts."
Collins wasn't suggesting that leaders should become pessimists. Quite the opposite. He argued that successful leaders maintain confidence in their ultimate objectives while remaining realistic about the circumstances they face. They ask questions, encourage honest discussion, and pay attention when new information becomes available.
It's a useful principle for anyone responsible for leading an organization. It's also one that brings to mind an important moment in the Lewis and Clark Expedition.
A Familiar Landmark in an Unfamiliar Country
By August 1805, the Corps of Discovery had been traveling west for more than a year and the expedition had already encountered plenty of surprises.
The Missouri River had proved far more difficult to navigate than anyone might have imagined. At the Great Falls, in present-day Montana, the men had spent weeks hauling their boats and supplies overland to get around a series of waterfalls. Farther upstream, the expedition encountered a narrower, winding river where shallow stretches made moving the boats increasingly difficult.
Lewis and Clark knew they would eventually have to leave their boats behind and cross the mountains. To do that, they needed horses. And to obtain horses, they needed to find the Shoshone people.
That was proving easier said than done.
Among those traveling with the expedition was Sacagawea, a young Shoshone woman who had joined the party at Fort Mandan in present day North Dakota during the previous winter. She was accompanied by her husband, Toussaint Charbonneau, and their infant son, Jean Baptiste.
Sacagawea had been captured as a young girl by a raiding party of Hidatsa Indians from the northern Great Plains, in present-day North Dakota, and taken hundreds of miles east to their villages along the Missouri River. Now, traveling with Lewis and Clark, she was approaching the homeland she had not seen in several years.
On August 8, 1805, as the expedition moved through the upper Missouri River country, she recognized a distinctive landmark.
It was Beaverhead Rock.
The large rock formation, now preserved as Beaverhead Rock State Park near present-day Dillon, Montana, was familiar to Sacagawea from her childhood among the Shoshone. She recognized its resemblance to the head of a swimming beaver and explained that it was a landmark near the summer homeland of her people.
For Lewis and Clark, that was encouraging news.
They had been searching for the Shoshone, and Sacagawea's recognition suggested they were approaching the country where they might find them. Her knowledge offered something that maps, calculations, and observations alone could not provide: firsthand familiarity with the region.
The information came at a particularly important moment. Horses were becoming essential to the expedition's plans, and Lewis was preparing to move ahead with a smaller party to locate the Shoshone. Sacagawea's knowledge did not guarantee they would find the people they needed, but it gave them additional reason to believe they were approaching the right country.
The expedition had not suddenly discovered that it was traveling in the wrong direction. Rather, it had received valuable evidence that helped confirm its understanding of where it was.
Confidence Is Not the Same as Certainty
Lewis and Clark had good reasons to believe they were approaching Shoshone country. They had gathered information along the way and made decisions based on what they knew, but there was still a great deal they didn't know. Sacagawea's recognition of Beaverhead Rock provided another piece of evidence that helped confirm their understanding of where they were and what might lie ahead.
This is where Collins's argument becomes especially useful. In Good to Great, he describes what he calls the Stockdale Paradox, named for Admiral James Stockdale, an American naval officer who endured years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. Collins explains that successful leaders must maintain confidence that they can ultimately prevail while remaining willing to confront the difficult realities of their present circumstances. Those two responsibilities may seem contradictory, but they are actually complementary.
Confidence without a willingness to examine the facts can easily become stubbornness. A leader who refuses to consider new information may continue pursuing a plan long after circumstances have changed. On the other hand, a leader who constantly questions every decision without maintaining a clear sense of direction can leave an organization confused and uncertain about where it is going. Collins's point is that effective leadership requires both a commitment to the destination and an honest assessment of the road ahead.
For Lewis and Clark, reaching the Pacific Ocean remained the objective, but achieving that goal depended upon understanding the country as it actually existed, not simply as they had imagined it before leaving St. Louis. They could not afford to ignore information that might help them navigate unfamiliar territory, particularly as they approached the mountains and faced the challenge of finding horses and a route west. Sacagawea's knowledge was one more piece of evidence that helped them understand their circumstances and make better decisions about what came next.
What Are You Missing?
Most of us aren't trying to cross the Rocky Mountains with a small expedition and limited supplies, but we regularly make decisions with incomplete information. A business owner may assume customers want a particular product because sales have been strong in the past. A nonprofit director may believe a fundraising strategy is working because it has always produced results. A manager may assume employees understand their responsibilities simply because nobody has raised any questions. In each case, the assumption may be perfectly reasonable, but that doesn't necessarily make it correct.
The challenge for leaders is recognizing the difference between what they know and what they merely believe to be true. Assumptions are unavoidable, and without them, we would have difficulty making even routine decisions. But when those assumptions become so firmly established that we stop examining them, we risk overlooking information that could help us avoid mistakes or recognize new opportunities. Sometimes the most valuable thing a leader can do is ask another question, listen to a different perspective, or take a fresh look at the evidence.
Collins reminds us that confronting reality doesn't mean abandoning our goals or losing confidence in our ability to achieve them. Instead, it means recognizing that determination alone cannot overcome every obstacle, particularly when our understanding of the situation is incomplete. Leaders who remain open to new information are better equipped to adjust their plans without losing sight of their objectives.
On August 8, 1805, Beaverhead Rock didn't solve all the problems facing the Corps of Discovery. Lewis and Clark still had to locate the Shoshone, obtain horses, and find a way through the mountains before they could continue west. But Sacagawea's recognition of that familiar landmark provided valuable confirmation that they were approaching the country they had been seeking. It didn't eliminate the uncertainty ahead, but it gave them a clearer understanding of where they stood.
And that's a lesson worth remembering. Before deciding what to do next, a leader should make certain that the decision rests on the best available information rather than assumptions that have simply gone unquestioned.
Source acknowledgments
Jim Collins, Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap ... and Others Don't (HarperBusiness, 2001). Business concepts reviewed using Paul Minors's Good to Great book summary.
We Proceeded On, Volume 1, Number 1, for the historical discussion of Sacagawea and Beaverhead Rock.
Meriwether Lewis, journal entry for August 8, 1805, available through the University of Nebraska's Journals of the Lewis and Clark Expedition.
